Gaza developments

As I noted previously, direct altercations with armed Hamas on a massive scale is new for Israel, and it is accompanied by fears that some soldiers may be captured. Ha'aretz is now running a story, mostly based on rumor, that two soldiers may have been captured. Accompanying the national nightmare that has been the Gilad Schalit saga, this could be disastrous for the ground incursion.

My same source says as far as he can tell it's pure rumor, emanating from Hamas themselves. But it tells us that Hamas very much understands the deep fear that Israelis have of soldiers falling into enemy hands.

More worrisome still are statements coming from the Shin Bet leadership that Hamas may be on the verge of collapse. Of course, Israelis know how to play the psychological war as well, and there's certainly an element of bullshit to the statements. Nonetheless, if there's any truth to the possibility of Hamas collapse, that seems to me to spell trouble for Israel.

The government has been clear that they do not want to reoccupy Gaza. But if Hamas falls, will they have much choice? The PA seems to believe that, in the even of a Hamas defeat, they will be taking over. But is that in Israel's interest? These are, after all, the wunderkin whose chief of security fled to Egypt on the first day of the Hamas coup in 2007.

Alternatives, though, are hard to come by. The best solution, to my mind, is for Egypt to deploy a peacekeeping force to the Strip for a transitional period of a year or so. But the Egyptian government is facing a minority challenge from the Muslim Brotherhood, a kindred organization to Hamas, which enjoys significant popular support. If Mubarak is seen as too obviously approving of Israel's Gaza campaign, he risks a popular insurgency in his own country. The political calculus runs against Egyptian involvement, from their perspective. And of course, the hawkish element in Israel would also likely protest allowing Egyptian forces into any part of sovereign Israel, including the territories.

Another option would be a NATO deployment, filling the same role as the Egyptians. Personally, I see this one as a considerable long shot. As much smarter people than me have pointed out, neither NATO nor Israel want to put themselves in a position where there is the slightest chance of either shooting at the other. Ditto for a UN force. Gaza is probably just too volatile to guarantee zero chance of engagement -- and neither side wants to add that kind of scandal to an already nasty situation.

Out of the question, if the primary criterion is common sense, is any cooperative effort between Israel and either Egypt or Fatah. Such a cooperative effort would immediately brand either Arab force as hopelessly collaborative with Israel in the eyes of Gazans, who are going to emerge from this war deeply traumatized. (This is, incidentally, the primary argument against an Israeli reoccupation, as well.)

One possible hybrid solution would be a cooperation between Egypt and Fatah. Mubarak would be able to hide behind the purely altruistic veil of Palestinian reconstruction, and deflect questions of his complicity in the Hamas takedown. And Fatah would gain some real muscle to put behind their resumption of rule in Gaza. That solves the immediate problem of control in Gaza.

What it doesn't solve is the problem of Fatah generally, which continues to lack a mandate to govern Palestinians (and, in this most recent conflict, won't be able to help but further sacrifice what little credibility remains to them). It's not clear to me that Israel or the PA really knows what to do about this. It's hard to see Israel making the same mistake twice and holding new elections any time soon. (Who will Gazans choose? Al-qaeda? Will they write in Beezlebub? Anything is possible, post-Gaza war.) But then, how does Fatah gain credibility otherwise?

A lot may depend on how efficiently reconstruction is run in Gaza. In the coming days and weeks, depending on the length of the war, we're going to start to hear different plans for how to rebuild what has been destroyed. It's in Israel's long-term, strategic interest to offer significant capital to Fatah for humanitarian aid and infrastructure rehabilitation. Likewise, the UN and NATO, led by a generous US, should offer a multi-billion dollar aid package to Gazans, to be distributed by Fatah, with the understanding that it represents Fatah's only chance to come out of this whole debacle without being seen as hopelessly beholden to Israeli interests.

More later, as the future starts to clear.